Prelims2
Women's Bantamweight
Liz Carmouche vs Katlyn Cerminara
UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor
·Madison Square Garden
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Liz Carmouche
Katlyn Cerminara
35%
65%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 2"
68"
33
Age
Δ 5y
28
14-7
Career record
Δ 9 pp
19-6
W1
Current streak
W1
5
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Carmouche: 27 sig / 4 TD ·
Cerminara: 22 sig / 0 TD
Liz Carmouche
Katlyn Cerminara
36
Sig strikes landed
40
85
Sig strikes attempted
104
55
Total strikes landed
71
1.6
Takedowns landed
0.5
4.2
Takedowns attempted
0.9
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
203s
Control time
116s
Method
Decision
77%
KO/TKO
11%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Liz Carmouche
"Girlrilla"
14-7
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
5 fights · 2-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Mendes vs Lamas
—
L
UFC on FOX: Werdum vs Browne
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Fight for the …
—
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Moraga
—
L
UFC 157: Rousey vs Carmouche
—
Blue corner
W1
Katlyn Cerminara
"Blonde Fighter"
19-6
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: McDonald vs. L…
—