Prelims1
Welterweight
Vicente Luque vs Belal Muhammad
UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor
·Madison Square Garden
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Vicente Luque
Belal Muhammad
43%
57%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 4"
72"
25
Age
Δ 3y
28
25-12-1
Career record
Δ 18 pp
25-5
W3
Current streak
W1
4
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Luque: 9 sig / 0 TD ·
Muhammad: 3 sig / 0 TD
Vicente Luque
Belal Muhammad
44
Sig strikes landed
36
98
Sig strikes attempted
92
52
Total strikes landed
64
1.2
Takedowns landed
1.7
2.8
Takedowns attempted
4.4
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
80s
Control time
207s
Method
Decision
52%
KO/TKO
25%
Submission
23%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Vicente Luque
"The Silent Assassin"
25-12-1
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Cyborg vs. Lan…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
W
UFC on FOX: Dos Anjos vs. Cowbo…
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: American …
—
Blue corner
W1
Belal Muhammad
"Remember the Name"
25-5
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Jo…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—