Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Danny Roberts
Mike Perry
48%
52%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 3"
71"
29
Age
Δ 4y
25
19-8
Career record
Δ 5 pp
15-8
W2
Current streak
W1
2
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Roberts: 81 sig / 0 TD ·
Perry: 90 sig / 0 TD
Danny Roberts
Mike Perry
37
Sig strikes landed
26
135
Sig strikes attempted
61
40
Total strikes landed
34
0.5
Takedowns landed
0.8
1.6
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
61s
Control time
82s
Method
Decision
20%
KO/TKO
71%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Danny Roberts
"Hot Chocolate"
19-8
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC 197: Jones vs Saint Preux
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. …
—
Blue corner
W1
Mike Perry
"Platinum"
15-8
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor 2
—