Prelims2
Lightweight
Leonardo Santos vs Adriano Martins
UFC 204: Bisping vs. Henderson
·Manchester Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Leonardo Santos
Adriano Martins
35%
65%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 3"
72"
37
Age
Δ 3y
34
19-7-1
Career record
Δ 6 pp
29-9
W3
Current streak
W3
5
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Santos: 23 sig / 0 TD ·
Martins: 34 sig / 0 TD
Leonardo Santos
Adriano Martins
22
Sig strikes landed
23
55
Sig strikes attempted
60
34
Total strikes landed
33
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.7
2.4
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
101s
Control time
97s
Method
Decision
29%
KO/TKO
40%
Submission
31%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Leonardo Santos
19-7-1
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
5 fights · 4-0
Last 5
W
UFC 194: Aldo vs McGregor
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs LaFlare
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Arl…
—
D
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Hend…
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Nogueira vs. We…
—
Blue corner
W3
Adriano Martins
29-9
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
34
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
W
UFC 192: Cormier vs Gustafsson
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Mir
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Edga…
—
L
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Thomson
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Hen…
—