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Prelims1 Lightweight

Lukasz Sajewski vs Marc Diakiese

UFC 204: Bisping vs. Henderson ·Manchester Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Lean Confidence: High
Lukasz Sajewski
Marc Diakiese
53% 47%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
73"
26
Age
Δ 2y
24
L2
Current streak
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2
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Sajewski: 21 sig / 2 TD · Diakiese: 48 sig / 1 TD
Lukasz Sajewski
Marc Diakiese
26
Sig strikes landed
39
67
Sig strikes attempted
71
44
Total strikes landed
55
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.9
3.4
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.00
Knockdowns
0.40
157s
Control time
115s
Method
Decision
47%
KO/TKO
31%
Submission
22%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L2

Lukasz Sajewski

"Wookie"
13-4
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database 2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
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L UFC Fight Night: Jedrzejczyk vs…
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Blue corner

Marc Diakiese

"Bonecrusher"
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24