Prelims1
Welterweight
Leon Edwards vs Albert Tumenov
UFC 204: Bisping vs. Henderson
·Manchester Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Leon Edwards
Albert Tumenov
59%
41%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 1"
73"
25
Age
Δ 0y
25
23-6
Career record
Δ 1 pp
18-5
W1
Current streak
L1
5
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Edwards: 16 sig / 3 TD ·
Tumenov: 32 sig / 0 TD
Leon Edwards
Albert Tumenov
27
Sig strikes landed
26
68
Sig strikes attempted
65
37
Total strikes landed
36
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.5
2.9
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
115s
Control time
62s
Method
Decision
38%
KO/TKO
50%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Leon Edwards
"Rocky"
23-6
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
25
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs Arl…
—
L
UFC on FOX: Dos Anjos vs. Cowbo…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Lei…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Gonzaga vs Cro…
—
L
UFC Fight Night 56: Shogun vs S…
—
Blue corner
L1
Albert Tumenov
"Einstein"
18-5
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
7 fights · 5-2
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs Arl…
—
W
UFC 195: Lawler vs Condit
—
W
UFC 192: Cormier vs Gustafsson
—
W
UFC on FOX: Gustafsson vs Johns…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs S…
—