Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Mirsad Bektic
Russell Doane
74%
26%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 0"
70"
26
Age
Δ 5y
30
14-4
Career record
Δ 15 pp
15-9
W3
Current streak
L3
3
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Bektic: 4 sig / 4 TD ·
Doane: 6 sig / 0 TD
Mirsad Bektic
Russell Doane
30
Sig strikes landed
26
65
Sig strikes attempted
56
60
Total strikes landed
40
2.1
Takedowns landed
1.4
3.4
Takedowns attempted
3.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
237s
Control time
130s
Method
Decision
53%
KO/TKO
22%
Submission
25%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Mirsad Bektic
14-4
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Alves
—
W
UFC on FOX: Gustafsson vs Johns…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Werdum vs Browne
—
Blue corner
L3
Russell Doane
15-9
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
5 fights · 2-3
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: American …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Arl…
—
W
UFC 175: Weidman vs Machida
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Saffiedine vs …
—