Prelims1
Bantamweight
Brad Pickett vs Iuri Alcantara
UFC 204: Bisping vs. Henderson
·Manchester Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Brad Pickett
Iuri Alcantara
22%
78%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 3"
71"
38
Age
Δ 2y
36
26-14
Career record
Δ 11 pp
35-11
W1
Current streak
L1
11
UFC fights in our DB
12
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Pickett: 1 sig / 0 TD ·
Alcantara: 26 sig / 0 TD
Brad Pickett
Iuri Alcantara
30
Sig strikes landed
41
81
Sig strikes attempted
88
49
Total strikes landed
55
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.8
3.4
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
159s
Control time
80s
Method
Decision
60%
KO/TKO
21%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Brad Pickett
"One Punch"
26-14
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38
In our database
11 fights · 5-6
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Silva vs Bispi…
—
L
UFC 189: Mendes vs McGregor
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs Swans…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Br…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs …
—
Blue corner
L1
Iuri Alcantara
"Marajo"
35-11
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
36
In our database
12 fights · 7-4
Last 5
L
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader
—
W
UFC 190: Rousey vs Correia
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Mir
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Arl…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Munoz vs Mousa…
—