Main
Heavyweight
Stefan Struve vs Daniel Omielanczuk
UFC 204: Bisping vs. Henderson
·Manchester Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Stefan Struve
Daniel Omielanczuk
84%
16%
Why
84"
Reach
Δ 10"
74"
29
Age
Δ 6y
34
34-13
Career record
Δ 3 pp
20-8-1
W1
Current streak
W3
13
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Struve: 9 sig / 2 TD ·
Omielanczuk: 14 sig / 0 TD
Stefan Struve
Daniel Omielanczuk
24
Sig strikes landed
28
48
Sig strikes attempted
48
32
Total strikes landed
39
0.3
Takedowns landed
1.1
0.0
Takedowns attempted
2.7
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
70s
Control time
167s
Method
Decision
12%
KO/TKO
24%
Submission
64%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Stefan Struve
"Skyscraper"
34-13
Career record
Height
83"
Reach
85"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
13 fights · 8-5
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs Arl…
—
L
UFC 193: Rousey vs Holm
—
W
UFC 190: Rousey vs Correia
—
L
UFC on FOX: Dos Santos vs Miocic
—
L
UFC on FUEL TV: Silva vs. Stann
—
Blue corner
W3
Daniel Omielanczuk
20-8-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
34
In our database
6 fights · 4-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: McDonald vs. L…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Silva vs Bispi…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Lei…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Gonzaga vs Cro…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Minotauro vs N…
—