Prelims1
Bantamweight
Davey Grant vs Damian Stasiak
UFC 204: Bisping vs. Henderson
·Manchester Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Davey Grant
Damian Stasiak
63%
37%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 1"
70"
31
Age
Δ 4y
27
19-8
Career record
Δ 6 pp
11-6
W1
Current streak
W1
2
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Grant: 36 sig / 2 TD ·
Stasiak: 10 sig / 4 TD
Davey Grant
Damian Stasiak
28
Sig strikes landed
22
49
Sig strikes attempted
37
57
Total strikes landed
42
1.4
Takedowns landed
1.7
3.2
Takedowns attempted
3.5
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
220s
Control time
173s
Method
Decision
38%
KO/TKO
18%
Submission
45%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Davey Grant
"Dangerous"
19-8
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Silva vs Bispi…
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Rous…
—
Blue corner
W1
Damian Stasiak
"Webster"
11-6
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Rothwell vs Do…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Gonzaga vs Cro…
—