Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Vitor Belfort
Gegard Mousasi
7%
93%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 2"
76"
40
Age
Δ 8y
31
26-15
Career record
Δ 21 pp
43-6-2
L1
Current streak
W2
10
UFC fights in our DB
9
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Belfort: 8 sig / 0 TD ·
Mousasi: 57 sig / 1 TD
Vitor Belfort
Gegard Mousasi
16
Sig strikes landed
35
49
Sig strikes attempted
69
22
Total strikes landed
50
0.4
Takedowns landed
0.8
0.9
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
29s
Control time
119s
Method
Decision
18%
KO/TKO
68%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Vitor Belfort
"The Phenom"
26-15
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
40
In our database
10 fights · 6-4
Last 5
L
UFC 198: Werdum vs Miocic
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Hen…
—
L
UFC 187: Johnson vs Cormier
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Hen…
—
W
UFC on FX: Belfort vs. Rockhold
—
Blue corner
W2
Gegard Mousasi
43-6-2
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
9 fights · 6-3
Last 5
W
UFC 200: Tate vs Nunes
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Silva vs Bispi…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Barnett vs Nel…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs Faber
—
W
UFC on FOX: Gustafsson vs Johns…
—