🏆 Title fight
Main
Middleweight
Michael Bisping vs Dan Henderson
UFC 204: Bisping vs. Henderson
·Manchester Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Michael Bisping
Dan Henderson
82%
18%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
38
Age
Δ 8y
46
31-9
Career record
Δ 9 pp
33-15
W4
Current streak
W1
16
UFC fights in our DB
10
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 5
Bisping: 119 sig / 0 TD ·
Henderson: 81 sig / 1 TD
Michael Bisping
Dan Henderson
70
Sig strikes landed
47
179
Sig strikes attempted
118
87
Total strikes landed
55
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.7
1.9
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.40
Knockdowns
0.40
108s
Control time
55s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
45%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W4
Michael Bisping
"The Count"
31-9
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38
In our database
16 fights · 11-5
Last 5
W
UFC 199: Rockhold vs. Bisping 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Silva vs Bispi…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Lei…
—
W
UFC 186: Johnson vs Horiguchi
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Bi…
—
Blue corner
W1
Dan Henderson
"Hendo"
33-15
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
46
In our database
10 fights · 4-6
Last 5
W
UFC 199: Rockhold vs. Bisping 2
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Hen…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Boetsch vs Hen…
—
L
UFC on FOX: Gustafsson vs Johns…
—
L
UFC 173: Barao vs Dillashaw
—