Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Marco Beltran
Joe Soto
36%
64%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 4"
65"
30
Age
Δ 1y
30
9-6
Career record
Δ 13 pp
19-7
W3
Current streak
W1
3
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Beltran: 3 sig / 0 TD ·
Soto: 2 sig / 1 TD
Marco Beltran
Joe Soto
39
Sig strikes landed
39
93
Sig strikes attempted
96
53
Total strikes landed
52
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.7
1.8
Takedowns attempted
2.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
76s
Control time
121s
Method
Decision
47%
KO/TKO
24%
Submission
29%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Marco Beltran
"Psycho"
9-6
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs M…
—
W
UFC 180: Werdum vs Hunt
—
Blue corner
W1
Joe Soto
"One Bad Mofo"
19-7
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
4 fights · 1-3
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs T…
—
L
UFC 195: Lawler vs Condit
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Boetsch vs Hen…
—
L
UFC 177: Dillashaw vs Soto
—