Prelims1
Welterweight
Erick Montano vs Max Griffin
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Ferguson
·Arena CDMX
Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Erick Montano
Max Griffin
51%
49%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 3"
76"
31
Age
Δ 0y
31
7-6
Career record
Δ 5 pp
20-14
L1
Current streak
L1
2
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Montano: 3 sig / 0 TD ·
Griffin: 15 sig / 0 TD
Erick Montano
Max Griffin
30
Sig strikes landed
32
71
Sig strikes attempted
66
46
Total strikes landed
48
1.3
Takedowns landed
1.0
4.4
Takedowns attempted
2.5
0.10
Knockdowns
0.50
148s
Control time
113s
Method
Decision
54%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Erick Montano
"Perry"
7-6
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Jo…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs Gaste…
—
Blue corner
L1
Max Griffin
"Pain"
20-14
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor 2
—