Prelims1
Bantamweight
Erik Perez vs Felipe Arantes
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Ferguson
·Arena CDMX
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Erik Perez
Felipe Arantes
65%
35%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 5"
73"
27
Age
Δ 2y
29
18-6
Career record
Δ 12 pp
19-10-1
W2
Current streak
W2
8
UFC fights in our DB
9
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Perez: 36 sig / 3 TD ·
Arantes: 34 sig / 0 TD
Erik Perez
Felipe Arantes
35
Sig strikes landed
32
82
Sig strikes attempted
70
50
Total strikes landed
47
1.4
Takedowns landed
0.8
3.1
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
182s
Control time
98s
Method
Decision
49%
KO/TKO
26%
Submission
25%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Erik Perez
"Goyito"
18-6
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
8 fights · 6-2
Last 5
W
UFC 201: Lawler vs. Woodley
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs Gaste…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs K…
—
W
UFC 167: St-Pierre vs Hendricks
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Kamp…
—
Blue corner
W2
Felipe Arantes
"Sertanejo"
19-10-1
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
9 fights · 5-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs Ol…
—
L
UFC 179: Aldo vs Mendes 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Mou…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Ba…
—