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Main Featherweight

Ricardo Lamas vs Charles Oliveira

Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Ricardo Lamas
Charles Oliveira
18% 82%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 3"
74"
34
Age
Δ 7y
27
20-9
Career record
Δ 7 pp
37-12
L1
Current streak
L1
10
UFC fights in our DB
16

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Lamas: 11 sig / 1 TD · Oliveira: 13 sig / 2 TD
Ricardo Lamas
Charles Oliveira
26
Sig strikes landed
36
51
Sig strikes attempted
71
42
Total strikes landed
47
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.2
2.1
Takedowns attempted
2.6
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
173s
Control time
134s
Method
Decision
22%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
50%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Ricardo Lamas

"The Bully"
20-9
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database 10 fights · 7-3
Last 5
L UFC 199: Rockhold vs. Bisping 2
W UFC Fight Night: Magny vs Gaste…
L UFC Fight Night: Mendes vs Lamas
W UFC 180: Werdum vs Hunt
W UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs Ste…
Blue corner
L1

Charles Oliveira

"Do Bronxs"
37-12 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database 16 fights · 9-6
Last 5
L UFC on FOX: Maia vs. Condit
W UFC on FOX: Dos Anjos vs. Cowbo…
L UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs Ol…
W UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Alves
W The Ultimate Fighter: A Champio…