Back to UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Ferguson
Main Women's Strawweight

Alexa Grasso vs Heather Clark

UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Ferguson ·Arena CDMX
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Alexa Grasso
Heather Clark
90% 10%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 2"
64"
23
Age
Δ 13y
36
—
Current streak
L1
0
UFC fights in our DB
2

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Grasso: 65 sig / 1 TD · Clark: 40 sig / 0 TD
Alexa Grasso
Heather Clark
51
Sig strikes landed
45
104
Sig strikes attempted
95
93
Total strikes landed
75
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.9
1.7
Takedowns attempted
3.4
0.40
Knockdowns
-0.10
178s
Control time
189s
Method
Decision
60%
KO/TKO
22%
Submission
18%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Alexa Grasso

0-0
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
23
Blue corner
L1

Heather Clark

"Hurricane"
7-7
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
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