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Main Middleweight

Thiago Santos vs Eric Spicely

UFC Fight Night: Cyborg vs. Lansberg ·Ginasio Nilson Nelson
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Thiago Santos
Eric Spicely
71% 29%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 3"
73"
33
Age
Δ 3y
30
22-12
Career record
Δ 2 pp
12-7
L1
Current streak
L1
8
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Santos: 2 sig / 0 TD · Spicely: 5 sig / 1 TD
Thiago Santos
Eric Spicely
25
Sig strikes landed
6
42
Sig strikes attempted
18
35
Total strikes landed
15
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.9
0.7
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
69s
Control time
92s
Method
Decision
23%
KO/TKO
37%
Submission
40%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Thiago Santos

"Marreta"
22-12
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database 8 fights · 5-3
Last 5
L UFC 200: Tate vs Nunes
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W UFC 198: Werdum vs Miocic
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W UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. …
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W UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Rom…
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W UFC 183: Silva vs Diaz
—
Blue corner
L1

Eric Spicely

"Zebrinha"
12-7
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC Fight Night: McDonald vs. L…
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