Main
Lightweight
Francisco Trinaldo vs Paul Felder
UFC Fight Night: Cyborg vs. Lansberg
·Ginasio Nilson Nelson
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Francisco Trinaldo
Paul Felder
68%
32%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 0"
70"
38
Age
Δ 6y
32
29-9
Career record
Δ 1 pp
18-6
W6
Current streak
W2
13
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
TKO - Doctor's Stoppage · Round 3
Trinaldo: 32 sig / 1 TD ·
Felder: 33 sig / 0 TD
Francisco Trinaldo
Paul Felder
45
Sig strikes landed
42
101
Sig strikes attempted
107
57
Total strikes landed
52
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.8
3.2
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
128s
Control time
103s
Method
Decision
50%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W6
Francisco Trinaldo
"Massaranduba"
29-9
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
38
In our database
13 fights · 10-3
Last 5
W
UFC 198: Werdum vs Miocic
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dillashaw vs C…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs Ol…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Alves
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs LaFlare
—
Blue corner
W2
Paul Felder
"The Irish Dragon"
18-6
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
6 fights · 4-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs Gar…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dillashaw vs C…
—
L
UFC 191: Johnson vs Dodson 2
—
L
UFC on FOX: Dillashaw vs. Barao…
—
W
UFC 182: Jones vs Cormier
—