Prelims1
Welterweight
Erick Silva vs Luan Chagas
UFC Fight Night: Cyborg vs. Lansberg
·Ginasio Nilson Nelson
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Erick Silva
Luan Chagas
38%
62%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 1"
75"
32
Age
Δ 9y
23
19-10
Career record
Δ 9 pp
15-3-2
L2
Current streak
D1
12
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Silva: 55 sig / 0 TD ·
Chagas: 41 sig / 1 TD
Erick Silva
Luan Chagas
29
Sig strikes landed
29
56
Sig strikes attempted
59
40
Total strikes landed
46
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.7
2.7
Takedowns attempted
1.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
126s
Control time
111s
Method
Decision
36%
KO/TKO
31%
Submission
33%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Erick Silva
19-10
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
12 fights · 6-6
Last 5
L
UFC 196: McGregor vs Diaz
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs Ol…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs LaFlare
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Dol…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Brown vs Silva
—
Blue corner
D1
Luan Chagas
"Tarzan"
15-3-2
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
23
In our database
1 fight · 0-0
Last 1
D
UFC 198: Werdum vs Miocic
—