Prelims1
Flyweight
Jussier Formiga vs Dustin Ortiz
UFC Fight Night: Cyborg vs. Lansberg
·Ginasio Nilson Nelson
Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Jussier Formiga
Dustin Ortiz
55%
45%
Why
67"
Reach
Δ 2"
65"
31
Age
Δ 4y
28
23-9
Career record
Δ 4 pp
19-9
L1
Current streak
L1
7
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Formiga: 8 sig / 1 TD ·
Ortiz: 13 sig / 0 TD
Jussier Formiga
Dustin Ortiz
26
Sig strikes landed
33
68
Sig strikes attempted
72
47
Total strikes landed
58
1.4
Takedowns landed
1.4
3.6
Takedowns attempted
3.9
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
164s
Control time
191s
Method
Decision
61%
KO/TKO
16%
Submission
23%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Jussier Formiga
23-9
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
7 fights · 4-3
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs Gaste…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Alves
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs Saint…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Hend…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Ba…
—
Blue corner
L1
Dustin Ortiz
19-9
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
7 fights · 4-3
Last 5
L
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Sa…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs Swans…
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Edga…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Werdum vs Browne
—