Prelims2
Lightweight
Alan Patrick vs Stevie Ray
UFC Fight Night: Cyborg vs. Lansberg
·Ginasio Nilson Nelson
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Alan Patrick
Stevie Ray
43%
57%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 4"
70"
33
Age
Δ 7y
26
16-4
Career record
Δ 7 pp
24-9
W1
Current streak
W3
4
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Patrick: 7 sig / 5 TD ·
Ray: 2 sig / 0 TD
Alan Patrick
Stevie Ray
26
Sig strikes landed
31
65
Sig strikes attempted
74
42
Total strikes landed
42
1.6
Takedowns landed
0.3
4.9
Takedowns attempted
0.7
0.00
Knockdowns
0.40
205s
Control time
35s
Method
Decision
52%
KO/TKO
33%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Alan Patrick
"Nuguette"
16-4
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
33
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Mir
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Jedrzejczyk vs…
—
W
UFC 169: Barao vs Faber 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs Shields
—
Blue corner
W3
Stevie Ray
"Braveheart"
24-9
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
27
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Holohan vs Smo…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Lei…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Gonzaga vs Cro…
—