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Prelims1 Welterweight

Keita Nakamura vs Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos

UFC Fight Night: Lineker vs. Dodson ·Moda Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Keita Nakamura
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos
73% 27%
Why
73"
Reach
73"
32
Age
Δ 3y
30
35-10-2
Career record
Δ 4 pp
26-10-1
W1
Current streak
W1
3
UFC fights in our DB
2

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Nakamura: 24 sig / 5 TD · Zaleski dos Santos: 34 sig / 1 TD
Keita Nakamura
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos
43
Sig strikes landed
42
105
Sig strikes attempted
95
59
Total strikes landed
67
1.6
Takedowns landed
0.5
4.9
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
179s
Control time
92s
Method
Decision
63%
KO/TKO
20%
Submission
17%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Keita Nakamura

"K-Taro"
35-10-2 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32
In our database 3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W UFC Fight Night: McDonald vs. L…
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L UFC Fight Night: Silva vs Bispi…
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W UFC Fight Night: Barnett vs Nel…
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Blue corner
W1

Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos

"Capoeira"
26-10-1
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database 2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W UFC on FOX: Teixeira vs Evans
—
L UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Alves
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