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Prelims2 Middleweight

Nate Marquardt vs Tamdan McCrory

UFC Fight Night: Lineker vs. Dodson ·Moda Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Lean Confidence: High
Nate Marquardt
Tamdan McCrory
54% 46%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 2"
76"
38
Age
Δ 8y
30
35-20-2
Career record
Δ 9 pp
14-6
L1
Current streak
L1
11
UFC fights in our DB
2

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Marquardt: 24 sig / 2 TD · McCrory: 16 sig / 0 TD
Nate Marquardt
Tamdan McCrory
19
Sig strikes landed
21
22
Sig strikes attempted
35
35
Total strikes landed
39
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.3
1.6
Takedowns attempted
2.9
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
124s
Control time
203s
Method
Decision
24%
KO/TKO
48%
Submission
28%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Nate Marquardt

"The Great"
35-20-2
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38
In our database 11 fights · 4-7
Last 5
L UFC 198: Werdum vs Miocic
—
W UFC on FOX: Dos Anjos vs. Cowbo…
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L UFC 188: Velasquez vs Werdum
—
L UFC 182: Jones vs Cormier
—
W UFC Fight Night: Te Huna vs Mar…
—
Blue corner
L1

Tamdan McCrory

"The Barncat"
14-6
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
76"
Stance
Switch
Age
30
In our database 2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs T…
—
W UFC on FOX: Dos Anjos vs. Cowbo…
—