Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Joshua Burkman
Zak Ottow
53%
47%
Why
72"
Reach
72"
36
Age
Δ 7y
30
L1
Current streak
—
5
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Burkman: 47 sig / 1 TD ·
Ottow: 65 sig / 0 TD
Joshua Burkman
Zak Ottow
39
Sig strikes landed
42
81
Sig strikes attempted
96
55
Total strikes landed
58
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.0
3.2
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
129s
Control time
141s
Method
Decision
54%
KO/TKO
33%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Joshua Burkman
"The People's Warrior"
28-17
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
5 fights · 1-3
Last 4
L
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs Gar…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hendricks vs T…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs Ol…
—
L
UFC 187: Johnson vs Cormier
—
Blue corner
Zak Ottow
"The Barbarian"
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30