Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Will Brooks
Alex Oliveira
65%
35%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 4"
76"
30
Age
Δ 1y
29
19-4
Career record
Δ 19 pp
23-12-1
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Brooks: 16 sig / 4 TD ·
Oliveira: 48 sig / 4 TD
Will Brooks
Alex Oliveira
38
Sig strikes landed
37
82
Sig strikes attempted
95
65
Total strikes landed
61
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.8
2.9
Takedowns attempted
6.2
0.00
Knockdowns
0.10
161s
Control time
197s
Method
Decision
63%
KO/TKO
21%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Will Brooks
"Ill"
19-4
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Joan…
—
Blue corner
W1
Alex Oliveira
"Cowboy"
23-12-1
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
6 fights · 4-2
Last 5
W
UFC on FOX: Holm vs. Shevchenko
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Cowb…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Hen…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Rom…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Alves
—