Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Louis Smolka
Brandon Moreno
41%
59%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 2"
70"
25
Age
Δ 2y
23
W4
Current streak
—
6
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Smolka: 7 sig / 1 TD ·
Moreno: 8 sig / 1 TD
Louis Smolka
Brandon Moreno
51
Sig strikes landed
42
106
Sig strikes attempted
92
78
Total strikes landed
61
1.9
Takedowns landed
0.9
4.7
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
200s
Control time
94s
Method
Decision
54%
KO/TKO
25%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W4
Louis Smolka
"Da Last Samurai"
18-9
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
6 fights · 5-1
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: McDonald vs. L…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Holohan vs Smo…
—
W
UFC 189: Mendes vs McGregor
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Bi…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Brown vs Silva
—
Blue corner
Brandon Moreno
"The Assassin Baby"
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
23