Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
John Lineker
John Dodson
88%
12%
Why
67"
Reach
Δ 1"
66"
26
Age
Δ 6y
32
32-9
Career record
Δ 12 pp
23-12
W5
Current streak
W1
11
UFC fights in our DB
9
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 5
Lineker: 93 sig / 0 TD ·
Dodson: 101 sig / 0 TD
John Lineker
John Dodson
73
Sig strikes landed
49
169
Sig strikes attempted
129
80
Total strikes landed
53
0.3
Takedowns landed
0.5
1.0
Takedowns attempted
2.8
0.50
Knockdowns
0.20
9s
Control time
51s
Method
Decision
58%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W5
John Lineker
"Hands of Stone"
32-9
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
11 fights · 9-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: McDonald vs. L…
—
W
UFC 198: Werdum vs Miocic
—
W
UFC 191: Johnson vs Dodson 2
—
W
UFC 183: Silva vs Diaz
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Mill…
—
Blue corner
W1
John Dodson
"The Magician"
23-12
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
9 fights · 7-2
Last 5
W
UFC on FOX: Teixeira vs Evans
—
L
UFC 191: Johnson vs Dodson 2
—
W
UFC 187: Johnson vs Cormier
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs K…
—
W
UFC 166: Velasquez vs Dos Santo…
—