Prelims1
Middleweight
Antonio Carlos Junior vs Leonardo Guimaraes
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Johnson
·State Farm Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Antonio Carlos Junior
Leonardo Guimaraes
69%
31%
Why
26
Age
Δ 8y
34
11-6
Career record
Δ 0 pp
11-6
L1
Current streak
L1
5
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Carlos Junior: 32 sig / 7 TD ·
Guimaraes: 6 sig / 0 TD
Antonio Carlos Junior
Leonardo Guimaraes
41
Sig strikes landed
38
90
Sig strikes attempted
67
67
Total strikes landed
63
2.2
Takedowns landed
1.0
6.7
Takedowns attempted
2.6
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
233s
Control time
159s
Method
Decision
47%
KO/TKO
37%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Antonio Carlos Junior
"Cara de Sapato"
11-6
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
5 fights · 2-2
Last 4
L
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Mir
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Rom…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Dol…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Mald…
—
Blue corner
L1
Leonardo Guimaraes
"Leleco"
11-6
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Cowb…
—