Back to UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Johnson
Prelims1 Welterweight

Augusto Montano vs Belal Muhammad

UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Johnson ·State Farm Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Augusto Montano
Belal Muhammad
31% 69%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 1"
72"
32
Age
Δ 4y
28
15-4
Career record
Δ 1 pp
24-6
L1
Current streak
L1
2
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Montano: 67 sig / 0 TD · Muhammad: 66 sig / 3 TD
Augusto Montano
Belal Muhammad
49
Sig strikes landed
40
108
Sig strikes attempted
107
59
Total strikes landed
68
0.8
Takedowns landed
2.1
2.6
Takedowns attempted
4.8
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
85s
Control time
220s
Method
Decision
59%
KO/TKO
25%
Submission
16%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Augusto Montano

"Dodger"
15-4
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database 2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L UFC 188: Velasquez vs Werdum
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W UFC 180: Werdum vs Hunt
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Blue corner
L1

Belal Muhammad

"Remember the Name"
24-6 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
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