Main
Lightweight
Chris Wade vs Islam Makhachev
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Johnson
·State Farm Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Chris Wade
Islam Makhachev
17%
83%
Why
70"
Reach
70"
29
Age
Δ 4y
25
12-4
Career record
Δ 18 pp
28-2
L1
Current streak
L1
5
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Wade: 5 sig / 0 TD ·
Makhachev: 12 sig / 4 TD
Chris Wade
Islam Makhachev
11
Sig strikes landed
16
19
Sig strikes attempted
26
35
Total strikes landed
42
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.5
3.4
Takedowns attempted
2.9
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
164s
Control time
249s
Method
Decision
31%
KO/TKO
22%
Submission
48%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Chris Wade
12-4
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs Arl…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dillashaw vs C…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Boetsch vs Hen…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Si…
—
W
UFC 177: Dillashaw vs Soto
—
Blue corner
L1
Islam Makhachev
28-2
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
25
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC 192: Cormier vs Gustafsson
—
W
UFC 187: Johnson vs Cormier
—