Back to UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Johnson
Main Welterweight

Roan Carneiro vs Kenny Robertson

UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Johnson ·State Farm Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Lean Confidence: High
Roan Carneiro
Kenny Robertson
44% 56%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
38
Age
Δ 6y
33
21-12
Career record
Δ 8 pp
15-6
L1
Current streak
L1
2
UFC fights in our DB
8

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Carneiro: 33 sig / 2 TD · Robertson: 28 sig / 0 TD
Roan Carneiro
Kenny Robertson
44
Sig strikes landed
30
111
Sig strikes attempted
68
50
Total strikes landed
47
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.3
3.8
Takedowns attempted
3.0
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
92s
Control time
177s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
27%
Submission
29%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Roan Carneiro

"Jucao"
21-12
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38
In our database 2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Cowb…
—
W UFC 184: Rousey vs Zingano
—
Blue corner
L1

Kenny Robertson

15-6
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database 8 fights · 4-4
Last 5
L UFC on FOX: Dillashaw vs. Barao…
—
W UFC on FOX: Gustafsson vs Johns…
—
W UFC 175: Weidman vs Machida
—
W UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Hend…
—
L UFC 161: Evans vs Henderson
—