Prelims2
Welterweight
Erick Montano vs Randy Brown
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Johnson
·State Farm Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Erick Montano
Randy Brown
27%
73%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 5"
78"
31
Age
Δ 5y
26
8-5
Career record
Δ 7 pp
20-9
W1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Montano: 21 sig / 2 TD ·
Brown: 12 sig / 1 TD
Erick Montano
Randy Brown
32
Sig strikes landed
39
80
Sig strikes attempted
92
49
Total strikes landed
56
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.2
2.6
Takedowns attempted
3.5
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
115s
Control time
163s
Method
Decision
76%
KO/TKO
15%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Erick Montano
"Perry"
8-5
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs Gaste…
—
Blue corner
L1
Randy Brown
"Rudeboy"
20-9
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC on FOX: Teixeira vs Evans
—
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader
—