Prelims1
Featherweight
Gabriel Benitez vs Sam Sicilia
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Johnson
·State Farm Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Gabriel Benitez
Sam Sicilia
66%
34%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 4"
67"
28
Age
Δ 2y
31
23-14
Career record
Δ 0 pp
15-9
L1
Current streak
L1
3
UFC fights in our DB
10
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Benitez: 39 sig / 0 TD ·
Sicilia: 19 sig / 0 TD
Gabriel Benitez
Sam Sicilia
34
Sig strikes landed
21
65
Sig strikes attempted
65
45
Total strikes landed
35
0.4
Takedowns landed
1.5
0.9
Takedowns attempted
4.5
0.70
Knockdowns
0.10
48s
Control time
194s
Method
Decision
35%
KO/TKO
33%
Submission
32%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Gabriel Benitez
"Moggly"
23-14
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
L
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs Gaste…
—
W
UFC 188: Velasquez vs Werdum
—
W
UFC 180: Werdum vs Hunt
—
Blue corner
L1
Sam Sicilia
15-9
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
10 fights · 5-5
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs M…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Mir vs Duffee
—
W
UFC on FOX: Gustafsson vs Johns…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Nelson
—
W
UFC 173: Barao vs Dillashaw
—