Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Paige VanZant
Bec Rawlings
78%
22%
Why
65"
Reach
Δ 1"
64"
22
Age
Δ 5y
28
8-6
Career record
Δ 7 pp
8-8
L1
Current streak
W2
4
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
VanZant: 25 sig / 0 TD ·
Rawlings: 21 sig / 0 TD
Paige VanZant
Bec Rawlings
54
Sig strikes landed
47
124
Sig strikes attempted
105
77
Total strikes landed
63
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.7
3.7
Takedowns attempted
2.6
0.10
Knockdowns
0.00
224s
Control time
116s
Method
Decision
58%
KO/TKO
17%
Submission
24%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Paige VanZant
"12 Gauge"
8-6
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
22
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
L
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. …
—
W
UFC 191: Johnson vs Dodson 2
—
W
UFC on FOX: Machida vs Rockhold
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs Swans…
—
Blue corner
W2
Bec Rawlings
"Rowdy"
8-8
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
64"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Mir
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Hunt
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: A Champio…
—