Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Anthony Pettis
Charles Oliveira
25%
75%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
30
Age
Δ 3y
27
24-11
Career record
Δ 9 pp
38-11
L3
Current streak
W1
9
UFC fights in our DB
15
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Pettis: 53 sig / 0 TD ·
Oliveira: 41 sig / 4 TD
Anthony Pettis
Charles Oliveira
29
Sig strikes landed
39
66
Sig strikes attempted
79
40
Total strikes landed
52
0.5
Takedowns landed
1.2
1.0
Takedowns attempted
3.0
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
105s
Control time
142s
Method
Decision
22%
KO/TKO
22%
Submission
56%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L3
Anthony Pettis
"Showtime"
24-11
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
9 fights · 5-4
Last 5
L
UFC 197: Jones vs Saint Preux
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Dillashaw vs C…
—
L
UFC 185: Pettis vs Dos Anjos
—
W
UFC 181: Hendricks vs Lawler II
—
W
UFC 164: Henderson vs Pettis 2
—
Blue corner
W1
Charles Oliveira
"Do Bronxs"
38-11
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
15 fights · 9-5
Last 5
W
UFC on FOX: Dos Anjos vs. Cowbo…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs Ol…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Alves
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: A Champio…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Te Huna vs Mar…
—