Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Demian Maia
Carlos Condit
46%
54%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 4"
76"
39
Age
Δ 6y
32
29-11
Career record
Δ 4 pp
32-15
W5
Current streak
L1
17
UFC fights in our DB
10
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Maia: 1 sig / 1 TD ·
Condit: 1 sig / 0 TD
Demian Maia
Carlos Condit
44
Sig strikes landed
48
101
Sig strikes attempted
114
63
Total strikes landed
70
2.4
Takedowns landed
0.3
9.1
Takedowns attempted
0.1
0.00
Knockdowns
0.30
246s
Control time
67s
Method
Decision
59%
KO/TKO
21%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W5
Demian Maia
29-11
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
39
In our database
17 fights · 12-5
Last 5
W
UFC 198: Werdum vs Miocic
—
W
UFC 194: Aldo vs McGregor
—
W
UFC 190: Rousey vs Correia
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs LaFlare
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Mald…
—
Blue corner
L1
Carlos Condit
"The Natural Born Killer"
32-15
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
10 fights · 6-4
Last 5
L
UFC 195: Lawler vs Condit
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Alves
—
L
UFC 171: Hendricks vs Lawler
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Kamp…
—
L
UFC 158: St-Pierre vs Diaz
—