Main
Middleweight
Thales Leites vs Chris Camozzi
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Caceres
·Delta Center
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Thales Leites
Chris Camozzi
73%
27%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 2"
76"
35
Age
Δ 5y
30
28-10
Career record
Δ 8 pp
25-13
L2
Current streak
W3
7
UFC fights in our DB
16
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Leites: 36 sig / 5 TD ·
Camozzi: 8 sig / 0 TD
Thales Leites
Chris Camozzi
40
Sig strikes landed
40
85
Sig strikes attempted
91
54
Total strikes landed
57
1.7
Takedowns landed
0.9
5.1
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
282s
Control time
82s
Method
Decision
62%
KO/TKO
25%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Thales Leites
28-10
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
7 fights · 5-2
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Silva vs Bispi…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Lei…
—
W
UFC 183: Silva vs Diaz
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs D…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Minotauro vs N…
—
Blue corner
W3
Chris Camozzi
25-13
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
16 fights · 9-7
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs Gar…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Cowb…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Sa…
—
L
UFC on FOX: Machida vs Rockhold
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs Mous…
—