Prelims2
Featherweight
Cub Swanson vs Tatsuya Kawajiri
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Caceres
·Delta Center
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Cub Swanson
Tatsuya Kawajiri
42%
58%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 1"
69"
33
Age
Δ 5y
38
32-14
Career record
Δ 2 pp
36-12-2
W1
Current streak
L1
10
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Swanson: 67 sig / 1 TD ·
Kawajiri: 23 sig / 3 TD
Cub Swanson
Tatsuya Kawajiri
41
Sig strikes landed
29
72
Sig strikes attempted
66
57
Total strikes landed
52
0.5
Takedowns landed
2.6
-0.1
Takedowns attempted
7.2
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
75s
Control time
284s
Method
Decision
65%
KO/TKO
18%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Cub Swanson
32-14
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
10 fights · 7-3
Last 5
W
UFC on FOX: Teixeira vs Evans
—
L
UFC on FOX: Machida vs Rockhold
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs Swans…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs Ste…
—
W
UFC 162: Silva vs Weidman
—
Blue corner
L1
Tatsuya Kawajiri
"Crusher"
36-12-2
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Cowb…
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team McGr…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Jedrzejczyk vs…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Minotauro vs N…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Saffiedine vs …
—