Back to UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Caceres
Prelims2 Heavyweight

Chase Sherman vs Justin Ledet

UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Caceres ·Delta Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Lean Confidence: High
Chase Sherman
Justin Ledet
53% 47%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 2"
80"
27
Age
Δ 1y
28

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Sherman: 59 sig / 0 TD · Ledet: 113 sig / 0 TD
Chase Sherman
Justin Ledet
38
Sig strikes landed
35
73
Sig strikes attempted
74
55
Total strikes landed
50
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.6
1.9
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
136s
Control time
117s
Method
Decision
34%
KO/TKO
56%
Submission
10%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Chase Sherman

"The Vanilla Gorilla"
0-0
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
Blue corner

Justin Ledet

"El Blanco"
0-0
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28