Prelims1
Women's Strawweight
Randa Markos vs Cortney Casey
UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor 2
·T-Mobile Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Randa Markos
Cortney Casey
48%
52%
Why
64"
Reach
Δ 4"
67"
31
Age
Δ 2y
29
12-12-1
Career record
Δ 4 pp
11-10
W1
Current streak
W1
4
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Markos: 4 sig / 1 TD ·
Casey: 21 sig / 0 TD
Randa Markos
Cortney Casey
54
Sig strikes landed
60
122
Sig strikes attempted
137
79
Total strikes landed
77
2.1
Takedowns landed
0.5
4.8
Takedowns attempted
1.4
0.00
Knockdowns
0.10
263s
Control time
77s
Method
Decision
58%
KO/TKO
15%
Submission
27%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Randa Markos
"Quiet Storm"
12-12-1
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
64"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs T…
—
L
UFC on FOX: Dos Anjos vs. Cowbo…
—
W
UFC 186: Johnson vs Horiguchi
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: A Champio…
—
Blue corner
W1
Cortney Casey
"Cast Iron"
11-10
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: McDonald vs. L…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs M…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Lei…
—