Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Neil Magny
Lorenz Larkin
71%
29%
Why
80"
Reach
Δ 8"
72"
29
Age
Δ 1y
30
32-15
Career record
Δ 8 pp
19-6
W3
Current streak
W1
14
UFC fights in our DB
9
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Magny: 8 sig / 0 TD ·
Larkin: 32 sig / 0 TD
Neil Magny
Lorenz Larkin
60
Sig strikes landed
42
128
Sig strikes attempted
105
83
Total strikes landed
54
1.4
Takedowns landed
0.7
3.8
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
171s
Control time
100s
Method
Decision
64%
KO/TKO
24%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Neil Magny
"The Haitian Sensation"
32-15
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
14 fights · 11-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Mir
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs Gaste…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs Ol…
—
L
UFC 190: Rousey vs Correia
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs Faber
—
Blue corner
W1
Lorenz Larkin
"The Monsoon"
19-6
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
9 fights · 4-5
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs Gar…
—
L
UFC 195: Lawler vs Condit
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Rom…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Si…
—
L
UFC 177: Dillashaw vs Soto
—