Prelims1
Bantamweight
Cody Garbrandt vs Takeya Mizugaki
UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor 2
·T-Mobile Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Cody Garbrandt
Takeya Mizugaki
63%
37%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 4"
70"
25
Age
Δ 8y
33
16-7
Career record
Δ 7 pp
22-11-2
W4
Current streak
W1
4
UFC fights in our DB
12
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Garbrandt: 12 sig / 0 TD ·
Mizugaki: 4 sig / 0 TD
Cody Garbrandt
Takeya Mizugaki
45
Sig strikes landed
55
106
Sig strikes attempted
133
51
Total strikes landed
68
0.4
Takedowns landed
0.9
1.3
Takedowns attempted
3.4
0.50
Knockdowns
0.10
44s
Control time
112s
Method
Decision
55%
KO/TKO
37%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W4
Cody Garbrandt
"No Love"
16-7
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
4 fights · 4-0
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs Gar…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Cowb…
—
W
UFC 189: Mendes vs McGregor
—
W
UFC 182: Jones vs Cormier
—
Blue corner
W1
Takeya Mizugaki
22-11-2
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
12 fights · 8-4
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Barnett vs Nel…
—
L
UFC on FOX: Machida vs Rockhold
—
L
UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso
—
W
UFC 173: Barao vs Dillashaw
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Bigfoot
—