Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Tim Means
Sabah Homasi
79%
21%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 3"
72"
32
Age
Δ 5y
28
W1
Current streak
—
11
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Means: 71 sig / 0 TD ·
Homasi: 33 sig / 2 TD
Tim Means
Sabah Homasi
54
Sig strikes landed
37
113
Sig strikes attempted
87
68
Total strikes landed
46
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.7
1.6
Takedowns attempted
2.6
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
100s
Control time
83s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
41%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Tim Means
"The Dirty Bird"
34-17-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
11 fights · 7-4
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. …
—
L
UFC 189: Mendes vs McGregor
—
W
UFC on FOX: Machida vs Rockhold
—
W
UFC 184: Rousey vs Zingano
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Dol…
—
Blue corner
Sabah Homasi
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28