Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Colby Covington
Max Griffin
68%
32%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 4"
76"
28
Age
Δ 2y
31
W1
Current streak
—
5
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Covington: 26 sig / 6 TD ·
Griffin: 13 sig / 0 TD
Colby Covington
Max Griffin
29
Sig strikes landed
25
62
Sig strikes attempted
55
55
Total strikes landed
41
3.1
Takedowns landed
0.4
6.9
Takedowns attempted
0.6
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
377s
Control time
61s
Method
Decision
50%
KO/TKO
29%
Submission
21%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Colby Covington
"Chaos"
18-5
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs T…
—
L
UFC 194: Aldo vs McGregor
—
W
UFC 187: Johnson vs Cormier
—
W
UFC Fight Night 56: Shogun vs S…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Le
—
Blue corner
Max Griffin
"Pain"
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31