Prelims1
Middleweight
Brad Tavares vs Caio Magalhaes
UFC 203: Miocic vs. Overeem
·Quicken Loans Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Brad Tavares
Caio Magalhaes
56%
44%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 1"
73"
29
Age
29
21-14
Career record
Δ 11 pp
10-4
L1
Current streak
L1
12
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Tavares: 46 sig / 0 TD ·
Magalhaes: 26 sig / 1 TD
Brad Tavares
Caio Magalhaes
37
Sig strikes landed
29
81
Sig strikes attempted
75
53
Total strikes landed
47
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.7
2.2
Takedowns attempted
3.0
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
135s
Control time
115s
Method
Decision
53%
KO/TKO
33%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Brad Tavares
21-14
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
12 fights · 8-4
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Hunt
—
W
UFC 182: Jones vs Cormier
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs Saint…
—
L
UFC on FOX: Werdum vs Browne
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Ph…
—
Blue corner
L1
Caio Magalhaes
"Hellboy"
10-4
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
6 fights · 4-2
Last 5
L
The Ultimate Fighter: American …
—
W
UFC Fight Night 56: Shogun vs S…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Werdum vs Browne
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Bigfoot
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Nogueira vs. We…
—