Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Nik Lentz
Michael McBride
81%
19%
Why
32
Age
Δ 2y
30
W1
Current streak
—
15
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Lentz: 38 sig / 5 TD ·
McBride: 16 sig / 0 TD
Nik Lentz
Michael McBride
48
Sig strikes landed
33
81
Sig strikes attempted
74
78
Total strikes landed
42
2.9
Takedowns landed
0.4
5.7
Takedowns attempted
1.0
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
291s
Control time
88s
Method
Decision
54%
KO/TKO
25%
Submission
21%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Nik Lentz
"The Carny"
31-12-2
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
15 fights · 9-4
Last 5
W
UFC on FOX: Dos Anjos vs. Cowbo…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Alves
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Brown vs Silva
—
L
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Benavid…
—
W
UFC on FX: Belfort vs. Rockhold
—
Blue corner
Michael McBride
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31