Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Drew Dober
Jason Gonzalez
75%
25%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 4"
74"
28
Age
Δ 1y
26
W1
Current streak
—
6
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Dober: 20 sig / 0 TD ·
Gonzalez: 10 sig / 0 TD
Drew Dober
Jason Gonzalez
33
Sig strikes landed
37
79
Sig strikes attempted
75
56
Total strikes landed
50
1.6
Takedowns landed
0.7
4.3
Takedowns attempted
1.2
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
215s
Control time
68s
Method
Decision
47%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
19%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Drew Dober
30-15
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28
In our database
6 fights · 2-3
Last 5
W
UFC 195: Lawler vs Condit
—
L
UFC 188: Velasquez vs Werdum
—
W
UFC on FOX: Dos Santos vs Miocic
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Munoz vs Mousa…
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Rous…
—
Blue corner
Jason Gonzalez
"Nicoya"
0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
27