Prelims2
Welterweight
Yancy Medeiros vs Sean Spencer
UFC 203: Miocic vs. Overeem
·Quicken Loans Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Yancy Medeiros
Sean Spencer
59%
41%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 1"
74"
29
Age
Δ 0y
29
15-9
Career record
Δ 1 pp
12-7
L1
Current streak
L2
8
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Medeiros: 17 sig / 0 TD ·
Spencer: 17 sig / 0 TD
Yancy Medeiros
Sean Spencer
48
Sig strikes landed
46
129
Sig strikes attempted
132
59
Total strikes landed
59
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.5
2.0
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.40
Knockdowns
0.30
79s
Control time
38s
Method
Decision
71%
KO/TKO
24%
Submission
5%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Yancy Medeiros
15-9
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
8 fights · 3-4
Last 5
L
UFC 198: Werdum vs Miocic
—
W
UFC 194: Aldo vs McGregor
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Boetsch vs Hen…
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: A Champio…
—
W
UFC 177: Dillashaw vs Soto
—
Blue corner
L2
Sean Spencer
"Black Magic"
12-7
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
7 fights · 3-4
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Hendricks vs T…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Si…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Arl…
—
L
UFC 171: Hendricks vs Lawler
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Rous…
—