Prelims1
Bantamweight
Taylor Lapilus vs Leandro Issa
UFC Fight Night: Arlovski vs. Barnett
·Barclaycard Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Taylor Lapilus
Leandro Issa
87%
13%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 4"
69"
24
Age
Δ 9y
33
21-5
Career record
Δ 16 pp
13-7
L1
Current streak
L1
3
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Lapilus: 63 sig / 0 TD ·
Issa: 19 sig / 3 TD
Taylor Lapilus
Leandro Issa
44
Sig strikes landed
24
84
Sig strikes attempted
63
72
Total strikes landed
44
1.3
Takedowns landed
1.4
2.3
Takedowns attempted
6.2
0.50
Knockdowns
-0.10
180s
Control time
160s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
24%
Submission
30%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Taylor Lapilus
"Double Impact"
21-5
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
73"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
24
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
L
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs Gaste…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Jedrzejczyk vs…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Gonzaga vs Cro…
—
Blue corner
L1
Leandro Issa
"Brodinho"
13-7
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
L
UFC 190: Rousey vs Correia
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Dol…
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Edga…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Saffiedine vs …
—